Je n'ai pas poste depuis quelque temps ayant du faire face dans mon portefeuille a la rotation

sectorielle plutot brusque - qui s'est manifestee pour la premiere vague vers le 17 janvier,

suivies de celle tout debut fevrier. Cela m'a pris par surprise et j'ai construit quelques

spreadsheets sur la base des indices sectoriels de DJ Stoxx Europe 600 afin d'y voir plus clair,

e.g. d'acquerir une vue top-down.



Pour faire simple, en terme de secteurs, il y a eu un moUvement de vases communiquants partiel vers

les retardataires 2010 (Banques, Telecom,...) sur les global growth stocks (Industriels,

Sous-traitants automobiles, Biens de luxe etc,...) et en terme de style d'investissement, les

valeurs types "momentum" ont consolide pour laisser la place aux "value plays".



J'ai copie ci-apres un article dans le FT de ce jour qui quantifie l'impact de la rotation - tant

visible aux US qu'en Europe. Cet impact est plus marque ce cote-ci de l'Atlantique - je

l'explique par le fait que l'Europe est plus exposee aux marches emergents que ne le sont les US.

Or comme on le sait, il y a de nombreuses craintes de surchauffe dans les pays emergents (la Chine

vient de rehausser une nouvelle fois les taux de refinancement cette nuit), qui pourrait se traduire

par un ralentissement economique important dans les EM. Les marches financiers, eux, ont deja

tranches avec des performances plutot mediocres des indices EM actions depuis le debut de l'annee.





Pour un traduction en francais, vous pouvez utiliser google translate

(http://translate.google.co.uk/?hl=en&tab=wT#)





***



Voici l'article du Financial Times.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dea01ed6-330d-11e0-9a61-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1DNIOu945







The thumb doesn’t always rule



By James Mackintosh



Published: February 7 2011 23:34 | Last updated: February 7 2011 23:34



Wall Street generally catches on to moneymaking ideas long before academics can prove them.



“Let your winners run and cut your losses quickly,” was first set out in 1923 in Edwin

Lefevre’s classic Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Like other rules of thumb, it took decades to

prove; but the momentum effect, as it is now known, is in the investor vocabulary.









Buying shares that went up and selling those that fell every six or 12 months involves a lot of

trading, but it works. Mostly. It comes unstuck from time to time and January was one of those

times.



Since November equities have not had momentum, with the strategy losing 11 per cent in Europe and 8

per cent in the US, according to Citigroup.



While equities still (mostly) went up, investors shifted from emerging markets to developed markets.

Meanwhile, value stocks – those that look cheap on valuation measures such as price-to-book –

surged ahead, after a dreadful 2010.



In Europe, value stocks are up almost 6 per cent so far this year, while growth stocks, those with

faster earnings or sales growth, are unchanged. In the US, the gap between the two is smaller, but

value stocks remain ahead.



There is no contradiction between momentum – a short-term strategy – and the hunt for value, and

both can work. Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton, at the London Business School, point out

that both have excellent long-term records.



But both approaches also disappoint occasionally; value has been out of favour for three years,

while a momentum follower would have lost half their money in 2009 in the US, leaving them down for

the whole decade.



Academics disagree on the causes of these anomalies. But their research demonstrates the risks of

taking rules of thumb too seriously, or applying them too widely.



Aside from heavy losses in recent years, value has not worked in Italy or Switzerland, and momentum

does not work in Japan.