Je me demande si des stock-pickers seraient interesses par un fil sur les opportunites specifiques

de longs et de shorts au regard de la situation au Japon. En evitant le scenario catastrophe type

explosion des six reacteurs, quelles sont les valeurs susceptibles de souffrir et celle de

beneficier du scenario central, a savoir des effets devastateurs du Tsunami sur les infrastructures

au Nord-Est et fuites moderees de radioactivite epargnant largement Tokyo.



L'idee est moins de juger si les cours individuels refletent deja ce scenario central - a chacun de

se faire un avis - que de dresser la liste des gagnants et les perdants a moyen terme de la

situation au Japon, en y ajoutant des commentaires ou liens.



Je me lance avec quelques idees, le but etant que tout a chacun puisse librement contribuer.





Gagnants



Caterpillar, Terex (reconstruction)

Agrekko, United rentals,...(generateurs diesels)

Producteur de viande (porc, boeuf, poulet), peut-etre indices des cours de la viande Hog, Cattle.

Danone, Nestle, etc,... (si contamination de l'eau)

Theolia, Solarworld,...







Perdants



Ble (baisse des importations au japon)

Valeo (Sous-traitant automobiles)

Hermes, Richemont, Burberry (Biens de luxe)

ClubMed, TUI Travel, Kuoni, Thomas Cook (tour operators, en emettant l'hypothese que les

destinations asiatiques seront revues en baisse)

Societe de shipping hors LNG et Charbon

Aveva (nucleaire)

IBM, Apple, Nokia, STM et autres intervenants dans la chaine electronique/telco/semis

CFAO (importeurs voitures japonaises)





Question

Michelin (sous-traitant) mais 1. les concurrents sont aussi japonais et 2. ces derniers vont donner

la priorite a la production pour le marche interieur des camions et busses pour l'effort de

redeveloppement)



Assystems (nucleaire). Les stress-tests pourraient accroitre le volume d'activite?

APPLE (-): un article sur les composants critiques de iPad2 fabriques en Chine.











Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) newly unveiled iPad 2 may suffer from supply shortages in its electronic

Compass, the battery and possibly its touchscreen glass because of the devastating earthquake and

tsunami in Japan, a research firm said Thursday.



IHS iSuppli found at least five parts in the iPad 2 sourced from Japanese suppliers that could be

impacted, including NAND flash memory chips from Toshiba Corp. (6502.TO), dynamic random access

memory made by Elpida Memory Inc. (6665.TO), an electronic compass from AKM Semiconductor, the

touchscreen overlay glass likely from Asahi Glass Co. (5201.TO) and the system battery from Apple

Japan Inc, according to IHS iSuppli.



"While some of these suppliers reported that their facilities were undamaged, delivery of

components from all of these companies is likely to be impacted at least to some degree by

logistical issues now plaguing most Japanese industries in the quake zone," the research firm

said.



Apple declined to comment Thursday on its supply chain. On Monday, the company said its Japanese

facilities were open and functioning following the earthquake and tsunami.



Apple released the iPad 2 in the U.S. last week, and analysts estimated sales over the weekend

ranged anywhere between 500,000 and 1 million units. Apple's online store is showing a shipping

delay of a month or more for all new versions of the iPad 2.



Apple said earlier this week that it would delay the iPad 2's launch in Japan following the recent

developments that have devastated the country. The company had planned to begin iPad 2 sales in

Japan on March 25, alongside 25 other countries in various points around the globe.



IHS iSuppli said Japanese suppliers are facing difficulties with employees not being able to get to

work because of issues with the transportation system as well as interruptions in the electricity

supply. Semiconductor facilities that had suspended manufacturing activities following the

earthquake can't get back up to full speed until the aftershocks come to an end, the firm said.



"Earthquakes ranging from 4 to 7 on the Richter scale will make it impossible to really restart

these fabs until the earthquakes stop happening with such frequency," Dale Ford of IHS iSuppli

said. "Every time a quake tops 5, the equipment automatically shuts down."



The temporary suspension of production at Toshiba's main NAND production facility has prompted

speculation regarding Apple's supply of NAND flash. But IHS iSuppli said the NAND devices used in

the iPad are available from alternative sources, including Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.SE) and

Micron Technology Inc. (MU).



The firm said the compass and glass supply could be more problematic issues for Apple, especially if

shipments are delayed because of the logistical issues following the earthquake.



Apple shares closed Thursday up 1.4% at $334.64.



Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, said in a separate research note Thursday that key

component makers for the iPad 2 as well as the iPhone 4 have temporarily shut down operations in

Japan to assess damage.



"It appears no one has a good handle of the extent of damage and when production will resume,"

Munster said, adding that Apple could face temporary supply issues, but they shouldn't impact

consumer demand, which remains strong.



-By Steven Russolillo, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2180; steven.russolillo@dowjones.com



(Ian Sherr contributed to this report.)

Dans les metaux:



Cuivre (+): reconstruction du pays, equivalent a un mini stimulus package



Palladium (-): lie a a la production automobile

Uranium (-)



Aluminium: probablement negatif, baisse des importations (voir ce qu Alcoa dit sur le sujet)

Japon : 7% de la capacité portuaire inutilisable



http://www.wk-transport-logistique.fr/actualites/detail/37590/japon-7-de-la-capacite-portuaire-inuti

lisable.html





Après le séisme et le tsunami du 11 mars 2011, les ports du nord-est du Japon sont dévastés et

7% des capacités de traitement portuaire inutilisables. Les flux conteneurisés de Hitachi ou

Daikin Industries sont particulièrement touchés.

Transport maritime - Japon : 7% de la capacité portuaire inutilisable

Aux ports dévastés et aux raffineries en feu s'ajoute le manque d'électricité provoqué par

les accidents nucléaires. © Fotolia



Tokyo et tous les ports situés au sud de la capitale (Kawasaki, Yokohama, etc.) ont repris leurs

activités après une brève fermeture intervenue à la suite du tremblement de terre du vendredi 11

mars 2011. Mais les autres ports de l'archipel, de moindre importance du point de vue des volumes,

restent fermés pour permettre une estimation des dégâts.



Les ports du Nord-Est quant à eux (Hachinohe, Sendai, Ishinomaki et Onahama) sont si endommagés

qu'il est peu probable qu'ils soient opérationnels avant des mois, voire des années.





Le port de Sendai, le plus proche de l'épicentre



* Par Hachinohe arrivent les produits pétroliers destinés aux bateaux de pêche et aux

installations militaires américaines basées au Japon et en Corée du Sud.



* Via Sendai transitent de nombreux produits manufacturés allant des biens en caoutchouc aux

papiers en passant par de la machinerie. Sendai a été le plus proche de l'épicentre du

tremblement de terre. Selon le Lloyd's List Intelligence, son trafic conteneurs est de 100 000 EVP

en 2009. Sendai Gaz n'est pas en mesure de dire dans quel état est le terminal GNL qui se trouve

non loin du port. Tous les autres terminaux GNL sont opérationnels.

* Les installations du relativement grand port de Kashima (conteneurs et pétrole brut) sont

toujours fermées mais pourraient rouvrir dans les prochaines semaines.

* Les ports "secondaires" de Hitachinaka, Hitachi, Soma, Shiogama, Kesennuma, Ofunato, Kamashi

et Miyako sont également endommagés.



Le très important port de Chiba (pétrole brut et GNL) situé en baie de Tokyo a repris une partie

de ses opérations avec un seul terminal exploité par Cosmo Oil. La raffinerie de cette société

d'une capacité de 220 000 b/j est toujours en feu, feu qui a pris dans les cuves de stockage. La

raffinerie de Kyokuto Petroleum, toujours à Chiba, n'a pas encore rouvert.

D'autres installations pétrolières ou parapétrolières ont fermé ou fonctionnent au ralenti par

manque d'électricité, manque qui affecte bien sûr d'autres types d'industries.





Sans composants japonais, pas de production chinoise



À la lecture des journaux économiques, on semble redécouvrir l'importance du Japon en tant que

fournisseur de composants électroniques et autres "petite" pièces sans lesquelles les industries

informatique et automobile américaines, par exemple, vont avoir du mal à maintenir leurs

productions. Selon La Tribune du 16 mars 2011, l'industrie automobile américaine dépend à 14% de

ses achats de pièces détachées du Japon. En Corée du Sud, Renault Samsung fait venir environ 18%

de ses pièces du Japon.



"L'atelier de montage chinois", lui aussi, dépend des sous-systèmes électroniques assemblés

en Corée du Sud ou à Taiwan à partir d'éléments fabriqués au Japon. Si la mode du "zéro

stock" des années 1990 est toujours de mise, les prochains jours risquent d'être difficiles dans

la zone intra-asiatique, indépendamment de la menace de contamination radioactive. Selon Mærsk

Line, cette zone a connu, en 2010, une hausse moyenne des taux de fret de 19% et des embarquements

en croissance de 37%.



En espérant que le Japon reprenne le contrôle des réacteurs de la centrale nucléaire de

Fukushima, les conséquences financières de ce tremblement de terre devraient excéder les 100

milliards de dollars qu'a coûté le séisme de Kobe en 1995 dont la magnitude n'était "que" de

7,2

0

bravo et merci pour toutes ces infos.



tu es quelqu'un qui sait de quoi il parle.

JPH84, merci pour ton message.

Tout a chacun peut contribuer.



Les premiers articles sur la contamination alimentaire emergent dans la presse anglo-saxonne, en

particulier sur le lait (je ne suis pas sur si la contamination est directe ou par le biais du

cheptel bovin) et l'eau du robinet a Tokyo. Pour cette derniere, les niveau de contamination sont

sans danger pour la sante.



Le lait, c'est different. Le Los Angeles Times rapporte la ruee sur le lait pour bebe a Hong-Kong.

Cela me rappelle l'episode malheureux de la contamination chinoise d'il y a deux ans.



Les cooperatives laitieres de NZ et OZ sauront repondre a la demande.

A suivre le cours des matieres agricoles et de la viande (hog,etc,...)







New-York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/world/asia/20food.html



Los Angeles Times

http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-fg-japan-quake-main-20110320,0,5605102.story?page=1

Nissan / Fournisseurs





"Supply levels probably won't return to normal until mid to late summer, said Michael Robinet,

director of global production forecasting for IHS Automotive."



******



Voici l'article:



Nissan to restart more auto and parts plants in Japan, but industry still faces challenges

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5iTy-MyC20ldN5U-mIho1pSEsk-hw?docId=6314

156



By Tom Murphy (CP) – 7 hours ago



Nissan Motor Co. plans to resume auto and parts production at more Japanese factories next week, but

it may be several months before inventories and other elements of the country's auto industry

return to normal.



Nissan said it will resume production of parts at five plants Monday. It then plans to resume

vehicle production Thursday as long as supplies last.



Most of Japan's auto industry shut down after a powerful earthquake and tsunami devastated the

country earlier this month. Nissan and other carmakers have started resuming some production, but

the industry still faces rolling blackouts and infrastructure problems.



Supply levels probably won't return to normal until mid to late summer, said Michael Robinet,

director of global production forecasting for IHS Automotive.



"They certainly wouldn't start up if they didn't have all the components," he said. "How long

they can stay producing is anybody's guess."



Honda Motor Co. has said it will suspend automobile production until Wednesday. More than 100 of its

suppliers are based in the area near where the earthquake and tsunami hit, according to IHS. It told

U.S. dealers in an email it can't guarantee when production will return to full capacity.



Toyota Motor Corp., which builds the Prius hybrid and Lexus luxury cars in Japan, has shut its

assembly plants there through at least Tuesday. Mazda Motor Corp. also said it would resume

temporary production Tuesday at a couple plants.



Problems in Japan have affected production in other countries too.



GM said last week it will halt production at a Shreveport, La., plant that relies on Japanese-made

transmissions for the two small pickups it produces. It also said two of three shifts will be

cancelled at a plant in Eisenach, Germany on Monday and Tuesday. Another plant, in Zaragoza, Spain,

will remain closed Monday.



Nissan said last week that it was resuming production at its Kyushu plant for as long as parts last.

On Sunday, the company said it would expand production this week to include its entire process from

parts to vehicle assembly.



But the plants it restarts will not be at full production, said Nissan Americas spokesman David

Reuter.



Nissan's Iwaki engine plant also will remain closed. That plant is closer than other locations to

the earthquake-damaged Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear complex.



Reuter said the company is still figuring out the impact from the earthquake, so they don't have a

definite sense for how long they can sustain production. Nissan factories had mostly minor damage,

and most of the work there involves rebalancing or realigning machinery.



But infrastructure problems remain big issues for Nissan, other carmakers and all their suppliers,

Robinet said.



Northeastern Japan is a major centre for auto production, with many parts suppliers and a network of

roads and ports for speedy distribution. It also is home to steel plants, oil refineries and nuclear

power plants, some of which were severely damaged by the disaster.



Factories lose an "incredible amount of efficiency" if rolling blackouts cut power because

machines and plants can be difficult to restart, Robinet said.



He noted that road problems can make it harder to get suppliers and workers to factories, and

troubles with a water supply also can affect operations.



"If it were only one problem, certainly everybody could focus their attention on it, but there are

several issues," he said.

Un autre article qui fait le point sur ce qu'on dit les constructeurs automobiles a travers le

monde. A noter que des reprises de productions attendues pour la fin de la semaine derniere ont ete

repoussees d'une semaine.

En positif, Nissan America dispose de 50j de stocks en voitures. En negatif peut-etre, les autorite

americaines ont decide de scanner la radioactivite des voitures en provenance du Japon (impact

psycho sur le consommateur americain). Les commentaires de Volvo sont aussi interessants. Ils

semblent que les constructeurs allemands sont les mieux a meme a tirer leur epingles du jeux sur la

scene mondiale.







Voici l'article:

http://www.inautonews.com/japan-earthquake-impact-on-automotive-industry-%E2%80%93-sunday-update





One week on from the devastating earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan, the situation is still

critical.

Most of Japan’s auto industry is on shutdown. Idled plants are costing companies hundreds of

millions of dollars.



HONDA Motor Co

Damage was widespread in the Tochigi area, where Honda has a number of operations. Honda Motor Co.,

Ltd. has confirmed the fatality of a Honda R&D associate at the Tochigi R&D Center, when a wall

collapsed in a cafeteria. The associate was male, 43 years old.

In addition, 17 Honda associates were injured in the Tochigi area from collapsing ceilings and other

damage during the earthquake (initial reports put the number of injured at 30).



• The suspension of automobile production, which began March 14, was extended today for an

additional three days– through March 23 — at the following locations: Sayama Plant at Saitama

Factory (Sayama, Saitama); Suzuka Factory (Suzuka, Mie).

• The same March 23 timing applies at the Kumamoto Factory (Ozu-machi, Kikuchi-gun, Kumamoto),

where motorcycles are produced.

There is no immediate impact on Honda’s operations in North America. More than 80% of Honda and

Acura products sold in the U.S. are produced in North America, and the vast majority of automotive

parts for Honda automobiles manufactured in North America are sourced in the region.



Toyota



The initial freeze in production, originally said to last until the past Tuesday, has not been

extended for an additional week, until March 22. In an attempt to limit the financial losses that

will come as a result of the production freeze, Toyota also announced its decision to resume the

production of spare parts for vehicles already on the market beginning Thursday, March 17.

Toyota’s shutdown affects about 95,000 units of production, of which 60 percent is for shipment to

markets, including the U.S., Steve Curtis, a spokesman for the carmaker’s sales unit in Torrance,

California, said March 17. U.S. inventory levels remain “normal,” he said then.



Nissan Motor Co



Based on the currently available supply chain, Nissan Americas manufacturing operations plan to

follow a normal production schedule for at least the next seven days. The supply chain is being

continuously assessed and the next update will be provided on Friday, March 25.



Nissan Americas has visibility of more than 1,500 Nissan LEAF vehicles either in transit from Japan

or at port in the U.S. This number includes the shipment of more than 600 Nissan LEAFs which left

port in Japan on March 10, the day before the earthquake. Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. this week initiated

the monitoring of vehicles made in Japan for any traces of radioactive material.

At this moment the company said output has been stopped at three of its four car assembly factories

in Japan.

Nissan said all North American manufacturing plants will continue to operate on schedule. It does

not expect any short-term impact on sales or availability of cars and trucks. In addition, the

company has a 50 days’ supply of vehicle stock in North America or already in transit from

Japanese ports.



Mazda Motor Corp



Mazda Motor Corporation previously announced the suspension of production at its Hiroshima and Hofu

plants from the night shift on March 14, until March 21, in the wake of the disaster. Mazda has now

decided to resume temporary production at both plants from March 22, producing replacement parts,

parts for overseas production and vehicles utilizing “in-process” inventories.



A decision on the resumption of full-scale production of both parts and vehicles will be made at a

later date.



Mitsubishi is running three plants on Wednesday and Thursday, using inventory parts.

Direct impact over other automakers:

The effects of shutdown plants are not limited to Japanese companies. For global car companies

reliant on Japanese parts in production, setbacks in the supply chain can slow or even shut down

manufacturing.



GM said Saturday it is cutting unnecessary spending companywide as it assesses the impact of

production disruptions from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

The move will help the automaker preserve cash as it deals with the financial implications from

shortages of parts made in Japan, a company spokesman said.



Also, General Motors Co. stopped work at two European factories and is mulling production cuts in

Korea amid growing uncertainty over how its plants around the world will be affected by the crisis

in Japan.

In the U.S., GM will shut down a plant in Shreveport, La., starting next week. Mr. Akerson said the

shutdown was to ensure adequate supplies at all U.S. plants, and that the company is unsure how

their supply chain will be affected.



Volvo Cars issued a warning yesterday stating that its inventory of some components was down to a

week’s worth of production and that output could be disrupted unless it was able to replenish its

stocks soon.Volvo is estimated to purchase around ten percent buys of all its auto components from

Japan.



Renault said on Friday that its South Korean Renault Samsung Motors unit would defer overtime hours

planned from March 19 through the following week at its plant in Busan.

The factory imports components from Japan, including a 6-cylinder engine for Samsung’s SM7 saloon

car and transmissions for all of its vehicle range.



DAIMLER AG’S Japanese truck unit Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation will extend its

production halt until Tuesday

BMW is still unsure whether the disaster in Japan will affect production of its models. The firm’s

UK managing director Tim Abbott told Autoblog it was simply too early to tell what affect, if any,

the disaster will have on production.



British parts maker GKN Plc said on Tuesday it may have to cut the number of components it makes

because some of its Japanese customers, which include Mitsubishi Motor and Nissan Motor may be

unable to take deliveries.



Autoliv Inc., the world’s biggest producer of car safety products like seatbelts and airbags, said

production had been halted at one of its three Japanese plants, although all the plants were

undamaged. The affected plant was shut due to damage to infrastructure, the company said.

Autoliv supplies Nissan Motor Co., Toyota Motor Corp., Mitsubishi Motors Corp., Honda Motor Co. and

Mazda Motor Corp. At $206 million, Japan accounted for 11 percent of Autoliv’s fourth-quarter

sales.

Prodution des Silicon Wafers





Japan Earthquake Suspends Supply of Raw Material Used in 25 Percent of Global Chip

Production—Memory Segment Hit Hard

March 21, 2011

Dale Ford

The Japanese earthquake has resulted in the suspension of one-quarter of the global production of

silicon wafers used to make semiconductors. Manufacturing operations have stopped at Shin-Etsu

Chemical Co. Ltd.’s Shirakawa facility. MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. also stopped manufacturing

at its Utsunomiya plant. Together, these two facilities account for 25 percent of the global supply

of silicon wafer used to make semiconductors. Wafers are thin slices of silicon that serve as the

substrate of semiconductor devices. All semiconductors are built on wafers.



The facility in question Shirakawa facility produces large 300mm wafers, which are used in more

advanced semiconductors that have high transistor counts. The wafers made by this facility mainly

are used in the manufacturing of memory devices, such as flash memory and DRAM. Because of this, the

global supply of memory semiconductors will be impacted the most severely of any segment of the chip

industry by the production stoppage. Logic devices represent the next largest use of these wafers.



These companies supply not only domestic Japanese demand for wafers but also semiconductor

manufacturers around the world. Because of this, the suspension of operations at these plants could

have wide-ranging implications beyond the Japanese electronics industry. A 25 percent reduction in

supply could have a major effect on worldwide semiconductor production.



Shin-Etsu’s Shirakawa plant is responsible for 20 percent of global silicon semiconductor wafer

supply. The plant is located in Nishigo Village, Fukushima Prefecture Shin-Etsu reported that there

has been damage to the plant’s production facilities and equipment. To compensate for the lost

manufacturing, Shin-Etsu said it would set up production systems at other facilities. However, the

company warned it was unclear how long it would take to restore the damaged facilities and

equipment.



MEMC said it evacuated employees and suspended operations at its Utsunomiya plant after the

earthquake. The Utsunomiya facility accounts for 5 percent of worldwide semiconductor wafer supply.

MEMC said it expects that shipments from this facility will be delayed during the near term.



In another development for the global electronics supply chain, two Japanese companies announced

they have stropped production that amounts to 70 percent of the worldwide supply of the main raw

material used to make printed circuit boards (PCBs). PCBs are used in all electronic products, from

PCs to smart phones, to digital wristwatches.



The companies, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company Inc. and Hitachi Kasei Polymer Co. Ltd., said they

will resume production within two weeks of the raw material called copper-clad laminate (CCL).



However, with current inventory levels, IHS iSuppli believes that there likely is sufficient supply

of finished PCBs and raw CCL material to keep electronics production lines running at global

electronics manufacturers, as long as the interruption doesn’t last significantly longer than two

weeks.



Elpida Memory Inc. said its semiconductor assembly facility in Yamagata has been damaged. The

company also said a lack of electricity is impacting production. The Yamagata facility’s

utilization rate now is at less than 50 percent.



Confirming what IHS iSuppli noted in a previous release, AKM Semiconductor said its fab producing

electronics compasses for the iPad 2 has not been damaged. The main fab for the production of the

compass is located in Nobeoka, on the South island of Japan and did not suffer any power cut

either.



IHS iSuppli had warned the company’s delivery of products potentially could be affected by the

same logistical and power supply issues impacting all Japanese industries. AKM has noted that it

already uses multiple fabs including one external source for the fabrication of its compass. Also

the compass is fabricated using standard CMOS process and the production can easily be transferred

to any CMOS foundry in the world. The company said this should enable AKM to overcome logistical

hurdles that may arise.



The earthquake has damaged about 40 percent of the total wafer capacity of Renesas Electronics Corp.

The company has stopped production at its Tsugaru fabs producing analog and discrete devices, at its

Naka facility making system-on-chip and microcontroller devices, and at its Takasaki and Kofu fabs

making analog and discrete parts.



Half of the total wafer capacity at Fujitsu has been damaged. While the company’s fabs and wafer

equipment are intact, the shortage of electricity, gas and wafers means it will take three or four

weeks for the company to recovery production.

Danone au Japon





http://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/nous-traitons-la-situation-de-nos-expatries-au-japon-au-cas-par

-cas.N148494



- Le groupe agroalimentaire Danone possède une seule usine de produits laitiers frais à 50 km au

nord de Tokyo. Le site a été peu affecté par le séisme. Pour autant, « nous avons pris la

décision dès mardi d’arrêter la production pour permettre à nos salariés de rester chez eux

avec leur famille, explique un porte-parole. Nous leur avons donnés toutes les consignes de

sécurité notamment en cas d’accident nucléaire ». Le groupe compte aussi une activité d'eau

en bouteille, mais à l'importation.

Sur ses 400 salariés environ, seule une quinzaine est expatriée. La direction leur a demandé de

faire sortir leur famille du pays, mais leur a laissé le libre choix de quitter ou non leur poste

de management. « C’est à chacun de décider de partir ou non et de laisser ou non leurs équipes

», assure le porte-parole. Pour l'heure, les décisions sont variées.

Par mesure de solidarité, le groupe a fait don de ses stocks de Volvic au gouvernement et

réfléchit à la possibilité de fournir de l’eau en bouteille aux autorités locales. Seul frein

: il faut l’accord de ces autorités. « Le pays a une tendance au protectionnisme, et nous ne

pouvons rien faire sans leur accord », assure le porte-parole.

SONY suspend de nouvelles usines de production.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-22/sony-closes-5-plants-in-central-japan-from-today-till-march

-31.html





Sony Suspends Some TV, Camera Production as Plant Closures Mount

By Mariko Yasu - Mar 22, 2011 3:45 AM GMT





Sony Corp. (6758), Japan’s largest exporter of consumer electronics, halted factories that make

televisions and cameras, citing difficulties procuring components and materials following the March

11 earthquake.



The company suspended operations at five plants in central and southern Japan, including in the

Aichi and Oita prefectures, starting today until the end of this month, the Tokyo-based electronics

maker said in a statement. The factories make liquid-crystal display TVs, camcorders, cameras,

mobile phones, headphones and broadcasting equipment, it said.



The move increases the number of Sony’s plant closures to 12 after the company halted operations

at factories that make products ranging from Blu-ray discs to semiconductor lasers since the March

11 earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan. The electronics maker said it may shift some production

overseas if shortages of parts and materials persist.



Atul Goyal, a senior analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Singapore, said last week Sony’s

operating profit for the 12 months ending March 31 may be 230 billion yen, or about 7 percent lower

than he earlier estimated. He cut his forecast for the following year by 10 percent.



Sony’s four plants in Miyagi prefecture are still closed due to damage caused since March 11, the

company said March 20. Two plants in Fukushima prefecture for rechargeable batteries and a DVD plant

in Ibaraki prefecture are also idled.



The company resumed partial operations at a battery factory in Tochigi prefecture today, Sony’s

third to restart operations since the disaster.

La penurie de composants commence a impacter la production automobile en Europe.



Une phrase que je retiens: "Shortages of some bulky, low added-value parts won't be felt

immediately, however, as they are shipped by sea, with voyages taking between four and six weeks."

Electrocomponents, TT Electronics, tous les deux listes au Royaune-Uni, se trouvent dans cette

categorie.









http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703858404576214803416200400.html?mod=googlenews_wsj



A shortage of components from suppliers in disaster-hit parts of Japan is beginning to impact

manufacturing at some European car makers.



Adam Opel AG, the German unit of U.S. auto giant General Motors Co., Monday said it had cut back

output at plants in Germany and Spain while France's PSA Peugeot-Citroën warned production of

diesel engines would be affected.



The news follows Volvo Cars' announcement last week that its inventory of some components was down

to a week's worth of production and that output could be squeezed unless it was able to replenish

its stocks soon. Volvo Cars is a unit of China's Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co.



Opel Monday cancelled early and late shifts at its plant in Eisenach, Germany, and shut down

completely production at its plant in Zaragoza, Spain, due to a shortage in an electronic component

sourced from Japan, a company spokesman said.



It was hard to say whether there would be further stoppages, the spokesman said, adding that Opel

should be able to make up the production shortfall if there were no further disruptions.



General Motors added its operations in South Korea were to cut back on production to prepare for a

possible shortage of parts from Japan. It said last Thursday it planned this week to idle a

Shreveport, La., plant that builds small pickup trucks, citing short supplies of a Japan-made part.



PSA Peugeot-Citroën Monday said its production of diesel engines would be disrupted by a shortage

of electronic components from a supplier located in Japan's disaster zone. The country March 11 was

struck by a massive earthquake and a tsunami that devastated some towns and killed possibly more

than 10,000 people.



Shortages of some bulky, low added-value parts won't be felt immediately, however, as they are

shipped by sea, with voyages taking between four and six weeks. Lighter, higher added-value parts

such as electronic components, often are shipped by air, however, meaning that the logistical supply

chain is much shorter.



Peugeot-Citroën, Europe's second-largest automotive group after Volkswagen AG, said the disruption

would start affecting its automobile production March 23.



The French company said its supplier's teams currently were working hard to gradually resume

production within a week.



"In the meantime, PSA Peugeot Citroën's manufacturing organization will be adjusted to optimize

output and effectively serve the needs of dealers and customers. The European assembly plants partly

impacted by the disruption will adjust their output accordingly and introduce appropriate work

schedules within a week," Peugeot-Citroën said in a statement.



A company spokesman said production of diesel-engined Peugeot and Citroën cars was being wound down

because of the impending lack of parts made by Japan's Hitachi Automotive Systems Ltd. The Japanese

company has a plant located between Tokyo and the area affected by the earthquake and tsunami.



The parts shortage will affect all of the company's diesel-engined cars, but there would be no

disruption to the assembly of light-commercial vans, the spokesman said. "We have some inventories

of parts, but they are dwindling," he said.



Peugeot-Citroën hopes Hitachi will be able to start production again soon. "We're hearing

positive noises, but there's not a lot of visibility right now," the spokesman said.



Volvo Cars last week said a shortage of components used in infotainment systems, such as audio and

navigation, could disrupt production at its factories in Torslanda, Sweden, and in Gent, Belgium,

which together produce about 10,000 cars per week.

Adobe perd 6% a cet instant, en manquant les attentes. Blame le Japon, qui represente 15% des

ventes. Dassault est a 25% sur l'Asie, avec une part preponderante sur l'automobile,

l'aeronautique et l'industrie (mondial). Adobe perd 10& depuis le Tsunami, Dassault est a 5%.

J'ajouterais toutefois que les ventes de licences Dassault sont a long sale-cycle a comparer a

Adobe, qui est du churn essentiellement.



DSY sur la Watch List.

Toyota: suspension etendue aux US !



Le constructeur automobile japonais Toyota va "probablement" devoir suspendre une partie de sa

production en Amérique du Nord à cause d'un manque de pièce détachées, conséquences du

séisme au Japon, a indiqué mercredi à l'AFP un porte-parole du groupe.



"Nous avons dit à nos équipes que des interruptions de production étaient probables, mais que

nous ne savions ni combien il y en aurait, ni où elles interviendraient, ni leur durée", a

indiqué Mike Goss, porte-parole de Toyota aux Etats-Unis.



"Pour l'instant, nous continuons à fabriquer des véhicules en Amérique du Nord", a-t-il

ajouté.



Le premier constructeur mondial avait déjà indiqué la semaine dernière qu'il avait supprimé

les heures supplémentaires sur ses chaînes de production aux Etats-Unis en raison de

l'incertitude entourant l'approvisionnement en pièces détachées après le séisme au Japon.



Il a également indiqué que le redémarrage de ses chaînes d'assemblage au Japon

n'interviendrait pas avant le 27 mars.



"Ces suspensions n'en sont probablement qu'à leurs prémices. Tous les constructeurs en sont

encore à déterminer qui leur fournit chaque pièce. La pénurie d'une seule pièce peut suspendre

toute une ligne d'assemblage", a commenté Michelle Krebs, analyste du site spécialisé

Edmunds.Com.



"Toyota n'est pas le seul constructeur vulnérable. Presque tous les grands constructeurs sont

confrontés à des risques", a-t-elle ajouté.



Le constructeur a parallèlement annoncé mercredi qu'il repoussait à une date non précisée le

lancement d'une version break de son véhicule hybride à succès Prius destinée au marché

japonais.



Ce lancement devait avoir lieu en avril, et "aucune décision n'a été prise sur la date à

laquelle il sera reprogrammé", a-t-il précisé dans un communiqué.

Et malgré cela et tout le reste négatif le DJ. monte, le CA suit , tout va bien MME La Marquise.

Ca y est, on y arrive, les articles commence a affluer sur les bouteilles d'eau en forte demande.

Je suis surpris que le lait importe en poudre ou pre-melange pour bebe n'ait pas pris precedence.

C'est malheureusement plus critique.



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704425804576220361800672294.html



Kirin Holdings Co. said its mineral-water business, which imports Volvic-branded water from

France's Groupe Danone SA, has already asked Danone to send more shipments to Japan. But a Kirin

spokesman said it will take about three months for extra supplies to be shipped via sea freight,

underscoring the difficulty of meeting the short-term surge in demand.

Biens de Luxe: Tiffany nous a dument fait un sales warning apres-bourse il y deux jours.



Les analystes de Nomura ont revu a la baisse (de maniere tres marginale) leur anticipation de

resultat sur les societes cotees du luxe, le pays comptant generalement pour 10% a 20% des ventes

de ces groupes. La question clef est les Tokyoites vont cesser de consommer des biens de luxe

temporairement (quelques semaines - en raison des apres secousses et crainte de radiation par air)

ou si un impact psychologique plus durable est a l'oeuvre. Certains parlent d'une conso en berne

pouvant durer jusqu'a six mois.



Il est clair que les images de Ginza plonge dans le noir le soir et deserte la journee ne sont pas

des plus incitatrices.



Il me semble toutefois que les groupe de luxe pourront re-orienter en partie leur volume sur la

Chine, pour laquelle un ralentissement generale n'a pas (encore?) ete constate (au contraire de

l'automobile).

Antares,



Tres juste.



Si les indices europeeens et Etats-Uniens ont retrouve les niveaux d'avant le 11 mars voir au dela,

c'est bien qu'il y a plus de gagnants que de perdants dans ces regions. C'est somme toute un mini

plan de stimulation finance par les contribuables japonais.



Toutefois, il y a de clairs gagnants, comme Caterpillar, Terex, Aggreko - tous les trois a +10/15%

par rapport a la cloture du 10 Mars tandis que le ClubMed, le luxe, les sous-traitants auto, etc,...

peinent assez, entre -5%/-10%.



Des vues sur Saft?

Parfaitement d'accord avec ton info sur le Japon, les entreprises, l'air, l'eau ,

l'alimentation... On n'a pas encore de chiffre pour mesurer l'impact.



Pour Saft j'attendais une dégringolade du CAC entrainant un cours autour de 26, voir moins.

Résistance majeure autour de 29, ensuite on peut viser 34/34.50 et + dès que l'on aura une info

sur la production de la nouvelle usine de Californie ; sur le LT on peut espérer 40/42